Destabilized Saturday Edition #25
America's celebration of freedom, how hunger in Africa helps Russia in Ukraine, the sky turns green in South Dakota, Americans respond to Britain's political crisis, innit?
While July 4th, 2022, will appropriately be remembered for the horrific mass shooting in Highland Park, Illinois, there was another incident in Orlando the same day that received far less attention. In the middle of the Florida city’s fireworks display, panic suddenly spread through the crowd, people were scrambling for cover and running for safety. Safety from what? Nothing, as it turned out.
At least 12 people were injured while running from the scare, which police said may have been caused by firecrackers or some other type of firework thrown into the crowd just after the main fireworks show began at 9:45 p.m.
“We saw people running and everyone just started running. I don’t know. It was scary,” a man told News 6 anchor Matt Austin as the fireworks show continued.
Some witnesses said they heard what they believed were gunshots, however, police said there was no evidence of a shooting.
(Click on the image at the top for a video of what happened.)
The police are looking into what might have triggered the panic, but to me it’s explainable without anything beyond what we already know:
A country with more privately-owned firearms than people.
Where anyone 18 or older can buy an AR-15 at a store with no training, background check, or really anything required.
Where AR-15s are periodically used to kill people in public places, including Walmarts, graduations, elementary schools, and July 4th parades.
The loud explosions of fireworks.
It isn’t terribly hard to imagine someone, with the hours-old Highland Park shooting in the back of their mind, confusing a fireworks explosion with a gunshot and instinctively ducking down. The person next to them also ducks involuntarily, and a third person, taking no chances, starts running for cover. A fourth immediately follows, and so on until the wave of panic engulfs the whole crowd.
Importantly, this could happen without a single person behaving unreasonably. Everyone’s reaction is understandable given America’s countless mass shootings, including the one earlier that day in Highland Park.
As if to ensure we couldn’t write off the pandemonium in Orlando crowd as a fluke, something similar happened the same night in Philadelphia, though this one was apparently triggered by actual gunshots. (Click on the embedded tweet for the video.)
A country that is only a firecracker away from a panicked, scrambling crowd is at constant risk of chaos.
My Work
Guns, minority rule, and American instability
Why is regulation of guns so incredibly lax in the United States? Multiple reasons, and there’s a legitimate debate about the relative importance of each. One of the most significant reasons is U.S. political institutions are easily and regularly controlled by a minority of the country. Specifically a small-state minority, which in practice means a rural and exurban, white, right-wing, pro-gun minority.
The dynamic is clearest in the Senate, where Republicans have held a majority for 22 of the 42 years since 1980, but only in 2 of those years did their Senate majority represent a majority of Americans.
The five essential criteria for buying a climate-durable home
Putting it all together, the homes that make the best investments in the climate change era are:
In places and on specific properties that are less vulnerable to climate impacts.
Located in or near dense cities rather than in exurban and rural areas.
Embedded in wealthier and denser cities/towns and neighborhoods.
In places that are amenable to raising taxes to invest in climate ruggedization.
Situated in communities with high levels of social capital.
Interesting Reads
Confidence in U.S. Institutions Down; Average at New Low
Tweets of the Week
Extreme Weather Watch
Creeping Authoritarianism Watch
“Authoritarianism requires the creation of legal frameworks that then allow political enemies to be harassed and silenced on a grand scale.” -Ruth Ben-Ghiat
