Destabilized Saturday Edition #36

Climate reality and Miami real estate, popular unrest in Iran, solving the housing crisis requires... housing, manly men and the Little Mermaid

First Maria, now Fiona: Puerto Rico gets slammed by a major hurricane for the second time in five years, knocking out power to the entire island.

I hope you enjoy my article from yesterday on Miami, real estate, and climate reality – and if you do I’d love to you share it with your most curious friend:

When will Miami's real estate market reflect climate reality?

Have a great weekend!

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My Work

My previous article on Miami and real estate values:

Are Miami real estate buyers crazy, or am I? (link)

This week’s article on Miami and real estate values:

When will Miami's real estate market reflect climate reality? (link)

The most important insight from the model is that small deviations from conditions of steady growth in perpetuity can seriously compromise the value of a rental property, even if they don’t begin for several years. This is clear when the less optimistic scenario results in a net present value that’s $110,000 less than the optimistic scenario even though it has the same growth trajectory in years 1-5, net operating income is still growing in years 6-10, and NOI doesn’t start declining until year 16.

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Interesting Reads

They were still rebuilding 5 years after Hurricane Maria. Then Fiona hit. (link)

Hurricane Maria cleaved Puerto Rican memory. There was one kind of life before the tempest. And an entirely different life that emerged in its wake. Un antes y un después.

Before the storm, the Caribbean island archipelago was teetering economically and unraveling politically. In the five years since, there have been ongoing blackouts, protests, earthquakes and a global pandemic. Puerto Ricans have moved from powerlessness to precarity.

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Tweets of the Week

Seth Cotlar @SethCotlar

It's the election of '24, & the GOP candidate for POTUS says this election will determine "whether America will allow itself to be degraded into a communistic & socialistic state, or whether it will remain American." Yeah, that was *1924* and the candidate was Calvin Coolidge.

ian bremmer @ianbremmer

wow, what a chart from @AndreasSteno one of the many costs of putin’s war, visualized

CHOAM Nomsky @samthielman

That’s right, snowflake, I’m a red-meat-eating coal-rolling manly MAGA man. My two biggest issues? I would have to say women’s sports and upcoming remake of The Little Mermaid

Sanjeev Kohli @govindajeggy

The Royal Mail will now be called Charles III Post Office, or C3PO

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Extreme Weather Watch

The Associated Press @AP

Most people in Puerto Rico still had no electricity or running water on Tuesday after the island was devastated by Hurricane Fiona. The Hurricane Center says the storm is likely to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Bermuda on Friday.

apnews.comFiona swipes Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico faces big cleanupCAYEY, Puerto Rico (AP) — Hurricane Fiona blasted the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday as a Category 3 storm after devastating Puerto Rico, where most people remained without electricity or running water and rescuers used heavy equipment to lift survivors to safety.

𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚕𝚎𝚜 𝙲. 𝙼𝚊𝚗𝚗 @CharlesCMann

From what I can tell, the huge severity of today's drought in the N American West isn't widely understood. Here's a good thread from a UCLA climatologist who compares what's happening now to the big droughts of the past--and says, in effect, "holy crap"

Park Williams @peedublya

1/ With August now over, the ongoing soil-moisture drought in southwestern North America has now, at 23 years old and counting, matched the duration, and probably exceeded the severity, of the “megadrought” that struck the region from 1571–1593. https://t.co/VhM5sbVS1K

Alaska:

Melissa Frey @MelissaDFrey

"Worst storm I've ever had." -Judy Bunyon, Hooper Bay. Homes off foundations, power lines down, and roads under water. This was the scene in Hooper Bay tonight from Paul Galvez/Lower Yukon S.D. Since this video was taken, winds have increased & water levels continue to rise.

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Creeping Authoritarianism Watch

Roger Sollenberger @SollenbergerRC

New email from the National Republican Senatorial Committee asks supporters where they want Republican governors to “ship” migrants next.

These clips from Carlson’s show are disturbing and worth watching:

Kat Abu @abughazalehkat

Last night, Tucker Carlson instructed viewers to "fight back" against LGBTQ community and allies "no matter what the law says". But that attack didn't come out of nowhere. He's been conditioning his audience with the same rhetoric and taglines for months:

Rusty Bowers is the Republican Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives:

Amanda Carpenter @amandacarpenter

Rusty Bowers blasts Trump-backed candidates who might try to overturn future elections. “Welcome to fascism.”

cnn.com‘Welcome to fascism’: Top Arizona Republican blasts Trump-backed candidates who might try to overturn future elections | CNN PoliticsThe outgoing Republican speaker of the Arizona House says Trump-backed GOP candidates might send the country “back into the dark ages” if they win key midterm races and help enact laws to make it easier to overturn elections -- which he said was tantamount to “fascism.”

Robert Costa @costareports

Per @JakeLahut, lots of private security working at the Trump rally tonight. Separate/not part of Secret Service. Seeing a lot more of this on the trail such as with Mastriano’s campaign in Pennsylvania. https://t.co/4uaMzMFdRQ

Jake Lahut @JakeLahut

This is what the Colorado Security Agency uniform looks like https://t.co/ESE6yh5zKn

The blurring of lines between militias/gangs and actual law enforcement is a classic sign of spreading fascist forces.

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Progress Joy and Hope

McKay Coppins @mckaycoppins

New study confirms a phenomenon that many Mormons have seen firsthand: "Missionaries who served around immigrants, or...who were assigned to speak a language besides English saw the largest increases in tolerant attitudes toward immigrants."

deseret.comStudy: Latter-day Saint missions change political views on immigrationUtah is a Republican-leaning state but has sometimes been an outlier on issues related to immigration

Fazel Hawramy @FazelHawramy

Unbelievable footage from Amol in northern Iran: people in their hundreds pushing back the riot police and state security forces #MahsaAmini #مهساامینی

M. Nolan Gray @mnolangray

"Building as much housing as possible used to be common sense on the Left, and that common sense may be returning."

jacobin.comTo Solve the Housing Crisis, We Have to Increase the Housing SupplyThe persistent shortage of homes is a key driver of the housing crisis. The solution is social housing, but to halt the churn of displacement in the short term, we simply need to build more homes.

Gabriele Corno @Gabriele_Corno

The little crab protects his friend from a human being by hugging him

Peter Manseau @plmanseau

Grateful for this sky and these fields.