My first read of this newsletter and very enjoyable. After observing elections at the national level since 1968, my conclusion is that there are way too many variables out there for anyone, even the most astute, to be able to detect any other than narrow amplitude trends. It's best to figuratively shrug ones shoulders and say "who knows?" The situation improves as the elections narrow down to state and best, local.. there predictions become more accurate. I'm not saying one can't make descriptors of the current political situation at time t° but the accuracy rapidly falls off as time increased even with our best Bayesian methodology. Case in point, Trump in 2016.
My first read of this newsletter and very enjoyable. After observing elections at the national level since 1968, my conclusion is that there are way too many variables out there for anyone, even the most astute, to be able to detect any other than narrow amplitude trends. It's best to figuratively shrug ones shoulders and say "who knows?" The situation improves as the elections narrow down to state and best, local.. there predictions become more accurate. I'm not saying one can't make descriptors of the current political situation at time t° but the accuracy rapidly falls off as time increased even with our best Bayesian methodology. Case in point, Trump in 2016.