Evaluating the climate resilience of homes in the eastern United States
It's mostly about water
There are a lot of bad things that can happen to a home. Trees can fall on it, wind-blown projectiles can break windows and let rain in, and hail can crash down on it. And, unfortunately, there are more climate change-fueled threats where these came from. My previous post laid out the full list of 12 climate risks that “influence… home values over time.”
Crucially, though, most of these risks are manageable. Heavy, looming tree branches can be trimmed back. Trees that lean toward your house (which are more likely to hit your house if they fall) can be cut down outright. Older windows can be replaced with hurricane rated windows that are unlikely to break. And with the right materials, roofs can be made impact resistant to hail.
Some of these upgrades are quite expensive (including hurricane grade windows), but in many cases the cost will be worth it because they can dramatically reduce your risks. This gives you the option of buying a house that has older windows or looming precarious trees knowing that a sufficient investment can neutralize those threats.
But then there’s water. Water is different.
You don’t want to buy a house that puts you in the position of fighting against water. There are some important practical takeaways from this, including two big ones:
You don’t want to own a home that’s in the flood plain of a river. With today’s heavy, climate-fueled rainfall it’s highly likely to eventually flood, even if it hasn’t in a long time.
You don’t want to own a home so close to the Atlantic ocean or Gulf of Mexico that a hurricane storm surge can reach you.12
Before we get to the other takeaways, a quick reminder that this is all getting worse faster than most of us recognize. We’re producing more carbon dioxide than ever before. Within a few decades we need to reach the point where we produce zero, zilch, nada net CO₂, but since the 18th century we’ve actually produced more each year than we did the year before (except for a few idiosyncratic dips like the Covid19 pandemic).
We’re succeeding in producing ever more renewable energy, but that progress has thus far been outweighed by rising overall demand. The increasingly rapid growth in wind and especially solar will eventually reverse this trend, but it doesn’t change today’s bottom line, which is that climate change is getting worse.
In parallel, the Trump administration is reversing smart and effective Biden administration climate policies - mitigation (reducing emissions) as well as adaptation (ruggedization) - which means the burden falls to states, cities, and towns. But states and localities don’t have sufficient resources to respond effectively, so that risk falls even further until it lands squarely on families and individuals.
That’s not where the burden should be, but that’s where it is.
In our worsening climate you want to avoid owning a home that’s vulnerable to water. That’s not the only thing that matters for a climate resilient home, but in the eastern half of the U.S. it’s the biggest thing. (Out west it’s vulnerability to wildfires.)
As I said, water is different. It’s different because it’s hard to fight, hard to hold back, and can hurt your home and your family in many different ways, including:
Weakened foundation - Water underground can weaken your foundation over time, leading to cracks, basement dampness, and even structural damage.
Erosion - Water can erode soil on your property, including around your home’s foundation. In particularly bad cases, erosion can extend underneath part of a foundation, causing it to shift, sag, and potentially crack.
Rot and decay - Persistent wetness in the wrong place can cause wood to rot.
Mold and mildew - Water creates a ripe context for mold and mildew growth, which can produce bad smells and create health risks.
Electrical damage - If it ends up in the wrong place, water can short-circuit electrical wiring, causing damage (appliances) and posing serious risks (fire).
Pests - Water makes good living environments and breeding grounds for bugs and rodents.
This isn’t even a comprehensive list! For one thing, it assumes a house doesn’t have roof issues, which can lead to another whole set of problems, including stains on ceilings and walls, more unpleasant odors, and damage to floors and even furniture.3
This is a long way of reinforcing the point that it’s critical to buy a house that has the fewest possible water issues. How does one do that? Good question.
A good lens for finding such a home is to look for one where gravity is working for you, not against you, in avoiding water. To get gravity on your side, look for the following qualities in a home:
Sits above nearby ground - When lots of rain falls the water has to go somewhere, and where it goes is downhill. That means you want a home that’s not in a low-lying part of town. You also want your house to sit on a spot higher than its immediate surroundings. Having a minor exception to this may, in some cases, be tolerable, like for a driveway (at the bottom of which should be a thoughtfully designed drain). But the fewer exceptions the better.
Surrounding grade is gradual, not steep - You want the slope of the land to be away from the house, and you also want the pitch to be gradual rather than steep. Not all steep slopes are a problem, but in the context of more powerful storms they can introduce water-adjacent risks like erosion and landslides.
Has a dry basement - If a basement is damp now, it’s likely to get wetter in the future as rainstorms grow more intense. If a basement is dry now, there’s a reasonable probability it will remain dry in the future.
These three criteria are things you should - must - check when you’re looking at any prospective home. Look around when you’re outside and picture in your mind how rainwater will move and where it will go during a heavy downpour. If you’re looking at a condo, eyeball the grade around the building - does it slope away from the structure? Touch the walls of a home’s basement or crawl space - do they feel damp? Are there any signs of water damage? Or of a recent paint job that may have covered water stains?
The other check you should always make before even visiting a home is to look up its First Street Foundation Flood Factor rating.
Happily, these are now included in home listings on Zillow and other apps (along with ratings for Fire, Wind, Air, and Heat). There’s a ton of data and smart science baked into the First Street model that generates these ratings, which is why they’re worth looking at. But they definitely aren’t perfect. Far from it. It’s difficult to build a nationwide model for nearly every property in the country that’s 100 percent accurate, after all.
So definitely factor in First Street’s Flood Factor rating, but also look at and assess the home and the property yourself. Use your eyes, your hands, and make your own judgment, erring on the side of caution.
Unless - maybe - you live in one of those hurricane proof communities in Florida.
If you really want to live in that kind of area, consider renting.
If your house has roof problems, get them fixed immediately!